SAMPLE PAGE PLUS NOTES FROM ANALYSIS 107

"WORLD WHEAT TRENDS"

A question often posed is whether the world can find additional crop area to satisfy growing demand. This CHART shows the total crop area harvested from the main crops in the world each year since 1971. The crops included in this total are wheat, oats, barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, rice, rye, sorghum, durum wheat, cotton, peanuts, canola, soybean and sunflower. These are the main field crops grown although there are a myriad of other crops of smaller areas. Sugar cane and sugar beet are two that are not included nor are any horticultural crops or other tree crops.

The most revealing, and surprising, result of this data is that, after remaining relatively static for over 20 years, world area harvested has actually grown over the last 5 years to record levels. A full analysis of the crops and location of this increase is needed but is not part of this analysis. A rise has also occurred in area of sugar cane but not in sugar beet.

While many experts have been saying that future added production will need to come from the existing crop area, the facts are suggesting that new crop area is being found in response to higher prices. There has been an increase of about 50 mha harvested over the last 5 years.

Just how much new crop area will be accessed over the next few years will depend on price and relative competitiveness with grazing industries where mixed farming is possible. In addition the use of more marginal land which has been left out of production for economic reasons is likely. The next CHART shows the trends in the areas harvested for each of the main crops.

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